Hello faithful(if any) readers. I'm sorry it's been so long since my last post, but I've been very busy with both school and football related matters. Since my last article, we've had a 1-2 skid to what seemed, in all indications, to be a season Alabama could surprise all expectations. Of course, this being the year of college football it is, a proverbial season of upsets and surprise teams, Alabama's surprise didn't quite last after the Bulldogs came to town and the Seminoles won in Jacksonville. There is still, however, a lot to play for, and 9-3 is still a distinct, if remote, possibility for Nick Saban's rookie Alabama squad. Therefore, without further rabbling, I will present the Statistical and Emotional breakdown of the Alabama-Ole Miss game.
Statisical
Alabama's offense, in many facets, has been one of night and day. A unit that showed flashes of brilliance against Arkansas and Houston has also mailed in some terrible games, namely Florida State and, well, Houston. In most cases, the first team that figures out that they can stack the box and force John Parker Wilson to throw, seems to have the magic touch to stop 'Bama's production. Quite an amazing coincidence. Having reached their midway point, there is enough game film for even a slightly sub-par coach and a bottom-ranked defense to understand that stopping Alabama's running game will give your offense a solid chance to win. Unfortunately for Alabama, Ole Miss presents that problem. Ed Orgeron, a former defensive line coach at Southern Cal, is especially sure to understand that facet. Once again, it appears that John Parker Wilson will have to show us how good he really is. On the good side, this will be about the easiest chance he will get. Ole Miss ranks dead last in the SEC in both rush and pass defense. What's worse for rebel fans is that the numbers don't even indicate how bad the defense is. The Ole Miss secondary gave up almost 350 yards passing to a 2-3 Memphis team. Georgia rolled up over 300 yards rushing to go along with four rushing touchdowns in the second half alone. For Alabama to get back in a winning groove, it is simply imperative for John Parker to step up and be the field general he showed Alabama fans in his record-breaking season of 2006. He's not the most talented, and he doesn't have to be. He just have to give a very talented, but occasionally unfocused, receiving corps a chance. That means he doesn't need to miss those five yard out routes, or get happy feet and roll out of a developed pocket. He just needs to manage and keep the ball safe, especially in the second half. A big part of that will depend on how on the duo of Glen Coffee and Terry Grant are in Oxford tomorrow.
On the offensive side for Ole Miss, their biggest and most pleasant surprise has been the incredible play of Seth Adams. The walk-on quarterback has far exceeded what any fan could have imagined for him when Brent Schauffer was assumed the starter preseason. He's a big part of what has kept the rebel passing offense in the top half of the SEC rankings. On the other hand, their rushing attack, like most of the rest of the Ole Miss program, ranks dead last in the SEC. Look for Seth Adams to throw the ball early and often. If Alabama pulls a Florida and doesn't come ready for the passing attack, their chances of winning are much worse than Florida's were, as Alabama doesn't have the same caliber of play-makers. Statistically, for Alabama to win, they must control the tempo of the game and stop the big passing plays, something the defense has managed to do very well, with some painful exceptions. Against a team like Ole Miss, the exceptions should be few and far between.
Statistical Edge: Alabama
Emotional:
Emotionally, this game is solely about John Parker Wilson. This is easily the worst defense he will face for the rest of the season. It is crucial not only to this game, but for the rest of the season, that he perform admirably. That's a lot of pressure, but if anyone can handle it, it's Wilson. He played for Rush Propst, the king of profanity, at Hoover, easily the best program in the state of Alabama, and he's been the starting quarterback for Alabama, also known as the blazing inferno, for over a year. John Parker needs to step up, and play like he knows he can. If he comes to play tomorrow, Ole Miss is in trouble.
From an Ole Miss standpoint, this is their swing game. They need the momentum of beating Alabama at home to catapult their goal of a bowl game. They will bring their best shot, and Alabama has to come into town to play.
Emotional Edge: Alabama
Final Thoughts and Prediction: Alabama and Ole Miss both need this game, for varying reasons. Alabama, to show that there is still a reason to be excited about this season and not the next one, and Ole Miss to determine whether it is time to start looking in a new direction for their program. Look for Alabama to get back in their offensive groove against a porous defense, and look for both Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell to add to their interception totals for the season.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Ole Miss 21
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