S & E Breakdown: The Third Saturday in October

Loathing is the only word that comes to mind when I think about the feelings shared between the faithful of Alabama and Tennessee. These teams hate each other in an almost farcical fashion, which means the emotional aspect of this week's game is more crucial than any Alabama has played this year. However, the impartial journalist must still give proper credit to the numbers these teams have produced this season as well. So without further banter, here is my Statistical and Emotional breakdown of the fall classic known as the Third Saturday in October

Statistical:
Looking at the defensive strengths, or lack of said strengths, of these two teams, no one should be expecting the 6-3 or 16-13 scores we have seen the last two years. Tennessee checks into this game with the 11th ranked defense in the SEC, while Alabama is holding at the 9th ranked defense in conference. But to be fair to the Volunteers, their stats may be padded by the 59 they gave up to Florida in Gainesville and the 45 they gave up to Cal in Berkeley. Most likely you are looking at two teams with roughly the same defensive production; Bama is allowing around 25 per SEC game, and so is Tennessee. Add into the mix both teams ability to break off big plays and this game has every indication of being a barn-burner. Eric Ainge is going to attempt to nickel and dime his way down the field with curls and quick slants, and Alabama is going to stick to the offensive balance which has placed it around the middle of the SEC in offensive production. Each team is going to heavily depend on defensive line play, but for separate purposes; Alabama will hope to pressure Ainge into making bad throws, and Tennessee will attempt to shut down the trio of Grant, Coffee, and Upchurch to force John Parker Wilson into beating them. If neither team proves to be successful in this endeavor, look for the last team with the ball to win. If they do, special teams will once again play a crucial role in an Alabama victory. If Javier Arenas can maximize the opportunities Tennessee's outstanding punter Britt Colquitt can provide to him, a Tide victory seems much more likely. The fact that Alabama will need more big plays than Tennessee does not bode well from a talent standpoint.

Key matchup: UA secondary vs. Eric Ainge and UT receivers.
Sure tackling in this game is crucial. Ainge has the accuracy and arm strength to punish Alabama on short routes. Simeon Castille and Kareem Jackson must lock down the Tennessee wideouts on the curls, slants, and outs, and prevent them from slipping out of tackles. Marcus Carter and Rashad Johnson, on the other hand, must play solid deep coverage, and make Eric Ainge pay for trying to throw a deep route. If Rashad Johnson can add to his SEC-leading four interceptions on the season tomorrow, Alabama will stand a better than average chance of coming away with the victory.

Statistical Edge: Tennessee

Emotional:
It's time for Nick Saban to earn his four million per year. The Board of Trustees gave him the largest salary in the NCAA to win games like this. For twelve years Alabama has been bullied around and cast down by the likes of Philip Fulmer and the Orange Nation. A victory here and Saban will send a clear message to the rest of the SEC; 'Bama ain't dead yet. Look for Alabama, stirred by a hungry and maniacal crowd, to come out as pumped as anyone has seen since the Gators came to T-town in 2005. From a Tennessee standpoint, Phil Fulmer has to show that his Georgia victory was no fluke, and he is still the man in charge in Knoxville. UT will not come out flat, and if they do, they don't deserve to win anyways. This game is about hatred, and it will be very apparent about ten seconds into Tennessee's first drive.

Emotional Edge: Alabama

Final Thoughts and Prediction:
As a student, I have never been to a home game I more eagerly anticipated. The 11:30 kickoff, while a burden to some, is a boon to me. The students will be fresh and ready to scream their heads off, giving Alabama the 12th man it will need to pull off the victory. Look for the scoreboard to be lit up, and for some 'Bama magic, in a revived offense, to get the Tide rolling for the brunt of their second half schedule.

Alabama 38, Tennessee 35