This is a segment I want to start doing every week before the game. It's called the S & E, or Statistical and Emotional, Breakdown. Too many analysts and sportswriters, in my opinion, base their game predictions on one of these two criteria. My goal is to present both sides equally, giving the edge to whichever side I feel has it for that week. So without further eloquence, I present my Bama vs. UGA S & E Breakdown:
Statistically:
Remember how close we thought the Arkansas game was going to be? This one should be even closer. The three opponents each team has faced, Western Carolina, Vandy, and Arkansas for Bama, and Western Carolina, OK State, and South Carolina for Georgia, are eerily similar.
Western Carolina: Same team. Georgia gave up a few more points, but still thoroughly dominated after the first half. Can you say depth?
Vandy/OK State: I would put these two at about the same level. Both have excellent playmaking receivers (Adarius Bowman for OSU, Earl Bennett for Vandy), both have spoiler written all over them(both Georgia and Alabama were picked as upset alerts when they played these teams), and both were dominated by a better, more talented team.
South Carolina/Arkansas: Both are very talented teams, albeit in different manners. Arkansas is much more brutally physical, while South Carolina is very efficient and all about finesse. If you think for a second that Georgia was massively upset by South Carolina, you would be, well, wrong. Their offense is struggling without Sidney Rice, but their defense is legit against the pass, ranking second in the SEC in pass defense, and is very stingy with points, averaging 9.7 points allowed, also good for second in the SEC.
Georgia's offense is not as balanced as some would like to think. I'll give you two numbers to prove it; 223(passing yards per game), 136.7(rushing yards per game). Knowshon Moreno, the talented freshman, is their leading rusher, but has only one touchdown to his credit. Four field goals didn't win against South Carolina, and it certainly won't do it against Alabama, who has a top 30 offense at the moment. I'll give you more numbers: 128(rushing yards against South Carolina) and 192(per game rushing defense for South Carolina). South Carolina is DEAD LAST in the SEC in rushing defense. Just to clarify, let me remind you who South Carolina's other opponents were.
Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina State.
If you are a Georgia fan, you should be worried. But don't worry about the running backs. Worry about that young, young, offensive line. Alabama fans more than anyone else should understand how critically important to the success of the running game an experienced offensive line is. (See 2005 and 2006)
Alabama, on the other hand, has some of it's own rushing issues, specifically in the defense department. That is, if you consider giving up over 300 yards on the ground bad. Which is what they did against Arkansas. However, most came in the second half, against the best running back in the nation, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones, who's no slouch either. All that shows(turn away, Shula fans), is a lack of depth on the defensive front seven most likely caused by poor D-line and LB recruiting in the last three years. The fact that two true freshman are playing reserve nose tackle should solidify the point. No matter. This is not the most interesting battle that will take place Saturday. The really interesting one, the battle that will decide whether it is an Alabama blowout or a Georgia squeaker, is...
Terry Grant vs. the Georgia run defense
Georgia's run defense is good. How good? 91 yards per game good. To give you an idea, South Carolina and Oklahoma State are averaging over 180 yards apiece. Terry Grant has yet to run for less than 96 yards this season. If he is held in check, John Parker Wilson has to throw a lot more. Bama's passing game is efficient, but it cannot be expected to put up the same kind of production it did against Arkansas. Though they haven't faced a passing attack as potent as Bama's, the numbers(Georgia is averaging almost 100 yards less through the air than Arkansas) indicate a tougher secondary. If Terry Grant doesn't get going, it leaves too many third and longs, opens Georgia up to the blitz, and forces John Parker to make more decisions than he is ready to. With DJ Hall still being a little sore, it's better for Alabama for Terry Grant to tote the rock a lot. If his carries reach over 20, Alabama runs away with it.
Statistical Edge: Bama
Emotionally:
Georgia wants to win. Bad. Really bad. Their lofty expectations are shot if they lose this game. Though Georgia wasn't upset too badly by South Carolina, they had a let down. They won't this week. They are hungry, they are pumped, and Mark Richt, despite his nice guy persona, is no Mike Shula. Mark Richt will smile and shake your hand and be a real class act, and especially so if he beats the snot out of you (Les Miles, care to comment about that whupping in the '05 SEC Championship?). He will have them ready. Will Nick Saban?
This, to my mind, is Saban's biggest test yet as Bama's head coach. Coming off an incredibly emotional, but physically draining, game against Arkansas, can he rally the troops enough to give the proper welcome to the Bulldogs of Georgia? I think he can, and I think he will. This guy means business, and he means it right now. But...
Emotional Edge: UGA
Final Thoughts and Prediction: This will be a fight. A glorious one. There will be more of a defensive focus, as opposed to an all-out barn burner. But in the end, those who haven't already seen the rising tide will feel it crashing against their face. Terry Grant runs for 130, scores two TD's, and Bama wins 24-21.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
A Tale of Three(?) Coaches
First of all, I would like to say how extremely stoked I am about the positive feedback I received after my first post. I certainly don't want to let any of my few readers down, so I decided to get back to work this Wednesday morning. Today's post answers a surprisingly common question that is asked by college football fans; why is a great coach great?
Well, to put it simply, a great college football coach has a basic understanding, and sometimes mastery, of the three keys essential to college football success. Some, like our favorite Alabama legend Paul "Bear" Bryant, possessed a mastery of all three, which was the driving factor behind his almost mythical success not just at Alabama, but at Maryland, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
1. The Recruiter
These are the Ron Zook types. The guys who pick out five-star high school prospects like Phil Fulmer picks out boxes of donuts at Krispy Kreme. A great recruiter understands that bigger, faster, and stronger recruits lead to bigger, faster, and stronger players, but occasionally don't quite understand how to transfer that onto the playing field. Unfortunately, poor Ron Zook is my guinea pig for this example. Hands down, Ron Zook is the best recruiting coach I have ever seen. The fact that he could get one five-star to come to Illinois is amazing, but upon his second in the 2007 class alone, I have run out of superlatives. Zook could probably convince me to wipe his ass for him. Unfortunately, when the time came to perform the (most likely) dirty deed, he also would not have the faintest idea how to tell me what to do. Though Zook's players won the national championship last year under Urban Meyer, with Zook at the helm they would never even have sniffed a BCS bowl. Great talent, tragically, does not mean great teams. Which leads me to...
2. The Program Builder
Mack Brown in a nut shell. These are the guys who can create a college football program enviable to a pro team. Facility upgrades, fundraising, generating fan support, these guys do it all. More importantly, they understand how to take the talent they have and make lemonade from lemons. They squeeze out the potential and turn them into first round draft picks (See Miami under Butch Davis as well). However, when the crunch time comes, it always seems like they "can't win the big one." Mack Brown is a perfect example. Since 2002, Mack Brown has finished in the top ten four times. An outstanding program, having outstanding results. In the polls. Let's look at championships. The number I'm thinking of is...one. That's how many Mack Brown got over that span. National AND Big XII. And even then, most would say that was because Vince Young piggy-backed that team all the way to the Rose Bowl. Guess who went to the Big XII championship four out of those five years, winning three times? Bob Stoops. You know, the Oklahoma guy. Why? Because not winning the big game means you still have work on the third aspect of coaching college football. Which is...
3. The Gameday Coach
Rich Rodriguez. Period. Quick show of hands. How many of you can throw the ball further than Pat White? All hands should be raised. Another quick show of hands. Who wants to go play football in Morgantown, West Virginia? No hands should be raised. Rich-Rod, God bless him, has made the veritable chicken salad out of chicken shit. WVU is far from a recruiting hotbed. Their last four classes, according to Rivals.com, have finished 23rd(2007), 52nd(2006), 31st(2005), and 47th(2004). Their facilities are the reason Rich Rodriguez almost left his alma mater to go to Alabama. Yet they have two Heisman trophy candidates, a top five ranking, and two consecutive bowl wins, one of them a BCS bowl. Against Georgia. From the SEC. How? Because Rich Rod is a damn good coach. He can exploit a weakness, any weakness, in the defense, and just straight-up outscore your ass, ala Steve Spurrier at Florida during the 1990s. Can he win a national championship? Maybe. Is it likely? Probably not. Because even a great gameday coach can't win every game without what we like to call quality depth, or a defense. Which are hallmarks of the first two coaches. Now, I present the final equation:
Recruiter + Program Builder + Gameday Coach= Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel... the elite coaches in the NCAA. True, some are better at aspects than others. Steve Spurrier is stronger at gameday coaching, while Meyer is a better program builder. Saban and Carroll are better recruiters. Stoops, I believe, may be the most balanced of all of them. But they all have deep understanding and competency in each aspect. And that, my loyal readers, is what makes a great college football coach.
Well, to put it simply, a great college football coach has a basic understanding, and sometimes mastery, of the three keys essential to college football success. Some, like our favorite Alabama legend Paul "Bear" Bryant, possessed a mastery of all three, which was the driving factor behind his almost mythical success not just at Alabama, but at Maryland, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
1. The Recruiter
These are the Ron Zook types. The guys who pick out five-star high school prospects like Phil Fulmer picks out boxes of donuts at Krispy Kreme. A great recruiter understands that bigger, faster, and stronger recruits lead to bigger, faster, and stronger players, but occasionally don't quite understand how to transfer that onto the playing field. Unfortunately, poor Ron Zook is my guinea pig for this example. Hands down, Ron Zook is the best recruiting coach I have ever seen. The fact that he could get one five-star to come to Illinois is amazing, but upon his second in the 2007 class alone, I have run out of superlatives. Zook could probably convince me to wipe his ass for him. Unfortunately, when the time came to perform the (most likely) dirty deed, he also would not have the faintest idea how to tell me what to do. Though Zook's players won the national championship last year under Urban Meyer, with Zook at the helm they would never even have sniffed a BCS bowl. Great talent, tragically, does not mean great teams. Which leads me to...
2. The Program Builder
Mack Brown in a nut shell. These are the guys who can create a college football program enviable to a pro team. Facility upgrades, fundraising, generating fan support, these guys do it all. More importantly, they understand how to take the talent they have and make lemonade from lemons. They squeeze out the potential and turn them into first round draft picks (See Miami under Butch Davis as well). However, when the crunch time comes, it always seems like they "can't win the big one." Mack Brown is a perfect example. Since 2002, Mack Brown has finished in the top ten four times. An outstanding program, having outstanding results. In the polls. Let's look at championships. The number I'm thinking of is...one. That's how many Mack Brown got over that span. National AND Big XII. And even then, most would say that was because Vince Young piggy-backed that team all the way to the Rose Bowl. Guess who went to the Big XII championship four out of those five years, winning three times? Bob Stoops. You know, the Oklahoma guy. Why? Because not winning the big game means you still have work on the third aspect of coaching college football. Which is...
3. The Gameday Coach
Rich Rodriguez. Period. Quick show of hands. How many of you can throw the ball further than Pat White? All hands should be raised. Another quick show of hands. Who wants to go play football in Morgantown, West Virginia? No hands should be raised. Rich-Rod, God bless him, has made the veritable chicken salad out of chicken shit. WVU is far from a recruiting hotbed. Their last four classes, according to Rivals.com, have finished 23rd(2007), 52nd(2006), 31st(2005), and 47th(2004). Their facilities are the reason Rich Rodriguez almost left his alma mater to go to Alabama. Yet they have two Heisman trophy candidates, a top five ranking, and two consecutive bowl wins, one of them a BCS bowl. Against Georgia. From the SEC. How? Because Rich Rod is a damn good coach. He can exploit a weakness, any weakness, in the defense, and just straight-up outscore your ass, ala Steve Spurrier at Florida during the 1990s. Can he win a national championship? Maybe. Is it likely? Probably not. Because even a great gameday coach can't win every game without what we like to call quality depth, or a defense. Which are hallmarks of the first two coaches. Now, I present the final equation:
Recruiter + Program Builder + Gameday Coach= Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel... the elite coaches in the NCAA. True, some are better at aspects than others. Steve Spurrier is stronger at gameday coaching, while Meyer is a better program builder. Saban and Carroll are better recruiters. Stoops, I believe, may be the most balanced of all of them. But they all have deep understanding and competency in each aspect. And that, my loyal readers, is what makes a great college football coach.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Saban Makes Us Believe
For about ten minutes on Saturday, September 15th, 2007, on a warm evening in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, it was 2003.
A twenty-one point lead...gone.
An inept offense...again.
A defense that made most stops...but not all of them.
We could only watch in the stands as Arkansas marched up and down the field like it was their own. Bryant-Denny stadium, rambunctious, proud, and loud as hell, had turned silent as the tomb where the legend himself resides.
"Who let Shula back?" I heard one fan say. I almost believed him.
Until I looked to the sidelines.
He isn't tall like Shula. He isn't gruff like the Bear. But Nick Saban has a fire. And I saw it in his eyes, that night, like I had seen it in every press conference, every TV appearance, every single frame in which the most powerful and questioned man in the entire state of Alabama had ever appeared; the unquenchable fire of a true champion.
Nick Saban and I have never met, but that night we did. For the first time, in that place, on that field, I felt the fire that now blazes through the entire football program here at my University of Alabama. I felt hope, and I knew that 2003 was just that; 2003. A past failure. A past regime. A past mistake. This was a new day, and with it was sprung a new hope.
First came a field goal.
Then came a stop.
Then came a touchdown.
I watched it happen, but it still boggles my mind. It was almost scripted in its perfection. This wasn't the Alabama I'm used to. This wasn't the Alabama that was always oh so close, yet oh so far. This was Alabama as the old geezers in Tide Pride knew it; the Alabama that never gets counted out. That never surrenders. That never dies. This was Alabama, as the Bear coached it.
All because of Mal Moore, maligned for the hire of the likes of DuBose, Franchione, Price, and Shula, all eager to take the challenge, but all, in their own way, failing.
Not this man. Not the Sabanator.
They ask me why he is different. He's coached three games for Alabama. How can I know anything?
I don't. But I believe.
I believe, simply because Saban leaves me no other choice.
"Be a Champion," he told us that January day he was introduced as Alabama's 27th Head Coach. The day he took the troubles, the trials, the tribulations of an entire state, placed it squarely on his shoulders, and said to those of us who starved for victory, for championships, for the pride we once held in ourselves, "Follow me, and we will reach the promised land."
Over-dramatic, perhaps. Perhaps not.
It's no secret that we Alabama fans love our football. We name our children after coaches. We schedule weddings around games. We wear our school colors like gang signs, base opinions of others on their allegiance, and don't give a damn if we do.
But Saban has done something I have never seen; he has made us love it for the future, and not for it's illustrious past.
Saban has made us believe again. And that is something worth more than a paltry $32 million.
A twenty-one point lead...gone.
An inept offense...again.
A defense that made most stops...but not all of them.
We could only watch in the stands as Arkansas marched up and down the field like it was their own. Bryant-Denny stadium, rambunctious, proud, and loud as hell, had turned silent as the tomb where the legend himself resides.
"Who let Shula back?" I heard one fan say. I almost believed him.
Until I looked to the sidelines.
He isn't tall like Shula. He isn't gruff like the Bear. But Nick Saban has a fire. And I saw it in his eyes, that night, like I had seen it in every press conference, every TV appearance, every single frame in which the most powerful and questioned man in the entire state of Alabama had ever appeared; the unquenchable fire of a true champion.
Nick Saban and I have never met, but that night we did. For the first time, in that place, on that field, I felt the fire that now blazes through the entire football program here at my University of Alabama. I felt hope, and I knew that 2003 was just that; 2003. A past failure. A past regime. A past mistake. This was a new day, and with it was sprung a new hope.
First came a field goal.
Then came a stop.
Then came a touchdown.
I watched it happen, but it still boggles my mind. It was almost scripted in its perfection. This wasn't the Alabama I'm used to. This wasn't the Alabama that was always oh so close, yet oh so far. This was Alabama as the old geezers in Tide Pride knew it; the Alabama that never gets counted out. That never surrenders. That never dies. This was Alabama, as the Bear coached it.
All because of Mal Moore, maligned for the hire of the likes of DuBose, Franchione, Price, and Shula, all eager to take the challenge, but all, in their own way, failing.
Not this man. Not the Sabanator.
They ask me why he is different. He's coached three games for Alabama. How can I know anything?
I don't. But I believe.
I believe, simply because Saban leaves me no other choice.
"Be a Champion," he told us that January day he was introduced as Alabama's 27th Head Coach. The day he took the troubles, the trials, the tribulations of an entire state, placed it squarely on his shoulders, and said to those of us who starved for victory, for championships, for the pride we once held in ourselves, "Follow me, and we will reach the promised land."
Over-dramatic, perhaps. Perhaps not.
It's no secret that we Alabama fans love our football. We name our children after coaches. We schedule weddings around games. We wear our school colors like gang signs, base opinions of others on their allegiance, and don't give a damn if we do.
But Saban has done something I have never seen; he has made us love it for the future, and not for it's illustrious past.
Saban has made us believe again. And that is something worth more than a paltry $32 million.
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