"And David put his hand in his bag, and took thence a stone, and slung it and smote the Philistine in the forehead, so that the stone sunk into his forehead. And he fell upon his face to the earth."
Though these words were written some thousands of years ago, much of their meaning still remains relevant, even to this day. It is a new day, and with it comes a new army to Tuscaloosa, led by a monstrosity of purple-garbed talent and athleticism known only as the Bengal Tigers of LSU. They do not know fear, they do not know caution, and to a man, they do not know a defeat at the hands of the Crimson Tide. It is this vanity, this arrogance, this brashness, that Alabama must exploit and use to gain the victory on the third of November.
On the side of LSU, there stands the coach who knows only brute strength and trusts to chance and fate where his wit has failed. He is a man fallible to cleverness, beaten by discipline, and outsmarted by any man who would dare stand to face his wrath. There has been only one man who has done so, and on Saturday, there will be another.
His name?
Nick Saban.
Saban knows this song, and he knows this team. He built it, he molded it, and he gave it a national name. Now it comes to him, seeking revenge for a wrong it was not entitled to. Now is where the Chosen One must earn his keep; the man chosen to lead a program back from the abyss must now prevail upon the highest stage; a matchup with an enraged rival, ranked in the top five and greater in strength, speed, agility, and depth than any team Alabama has faced this year. It will take every good break, every forced mistake, every full-cranking cylinder, and every last bit of cunning and guile the well-massed coaching staff of Alabama can muster for David to overcome this Goliath. But it can be done, and every man, every woman, and every child who comes to watch the battle of this decade on the plains of Bryant-Denny must believe in it's possibility.
Let the stadium shake as it has never done before. Let the multitudes of the masses' shouts be heard in every corner of the state of Alabama, because the Tigers of LSU are coming to battle.
Nick Saban and the Tide will be waiting for them. Will you?
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Five Facts Alabama Fans Should Know After the Tennessee Game
Another feature I want to start adding to this blog as I evolve it into a serious journalistic output is a "Five Facts" section after every Alabama game. These will usually end up being some epiphanies I have uncovered from the game itself or from some other facet related to the ongoing season. So here goes with my Five Facts from the Tennessee game:
1) Alabama is improving as the season goes on
This should be a no-brainer for any other school, but for Alabama fans it's just a blessed sigh of relief. It's easy to say after the fact that maybe Tennessee isn't that good, but the simple truth is, Alabama went out last Saturday and defeated a rival with superior talent in a dominating fashion. A rival that had, in fact, demolished a team Alabama had lost to earlier in the season (Tennessee beat Georgia 35-14 two weeks ago). If Saturday is any indication, no longer will Tide fans be subjected to a promising start only to fade away to mediocrity by the arrival of November.
2) Saban isn't content with $4 million per year
Quick. Name the last Alabama coach you saw go as nuts as Saban did at the end of the first half on Saturday. If it takes you more than the last three coaches, that's a good sign. Don't see it as some coincidence that an obviously infuriated Saban took his team into halftime, likely gave them a wholesale ass-chewing, then came out and held a potent Tennessee offense to no points in the second half. This man will not sit on his laurels; he wants to win every game because he has the fire of a champion.
3) Saban is starting to trust Applewhite's offensive playcalling.
Calling a draw on third and goal from the eight yard line is not a Pendry move. That was Major's call. And it worked to perfection. It's just a small example, but it shows that maybe the players arent' the only ones becoming more comfortable with the offensive system.
4) The Fourth Quarter Program really, really, works.
Think fast; which team this year has beaten Alabama in the fourth quarter? The only one that comes to mind is Houston, and Alabama still won that game. The results, however, seem to indicate the Houston game was an anomaly. So far this season, Alabama has scored 77 points in the fourth quarter through eight games. To give you something to compare it to, the 2006 Alabama squad put up 79 points THE ENTIRE SEASON in the fourth quarter. If you don't believe, especially on the offensive side, our mental and physical conditioning has improved dramatically, you aren't really paying attention.
5) This team CAN beat LSU
Preseason, this game was marked down as an almost universally sure defeat for Alabama. However, no one expected Nick Saban to work as quickly as he did. Alabama is perched, as we near the start of November, in one of the last places we expected them to be; tied for first in the SEC West. Only three more victories keep Nick Saban from achieving what was deemed impossible to do in his first season; take the Crimson Tide to Atlanta. The next obstacle in that path is that monstrosity of talent, depth, and athleticism that Saban himself built; the Bengal Tigers of LSU. The 28-14 tally of last year didn't indicate how much LSU really dominated that game. Nick Saban has made it abundantly clear this year his teams will not be dominated. Alabama's two losses have come by a combined 10 points, or less than the 15 point deficit Alabama had against Florida last year. It will not be easy. A perfect game will need to be played, and LSU will have to make some dumb decisions, but in this year of the upset, can anyone really count Alabama out? Only November 3rd can tell us for sure. One thing you can be sure of, however, is that Saint Nick will have the boys ready to play. So come on, Les Miles, bring it on. But I can tell you one thing; our defensive line won't let you go five-for-five on fourth down conversions.
1) Alabama is improving as the season goes on
This should be a no-brainer for any other school, but for Alabama fans it's just a blessed sigh of relief. It's easy to say after the fact that maybe Tennessee isn't that good, but the simple truth is, Alabama went out last Saturday and defeated a rival with superior talent in a dominating fashion. A rival that had, in fact, demolished a team Alabama had lost to earlier in the season (Tennessee beat Georgia 35-14 two weeks ago). If Saturday is any indication, no longer will Tide fans be subjected to a promising start only to fade away to mediocrity by the arrival of November.
2) Saban isn't content with $4 million per year
Quick. Name the last Alabama coach you saw go as nuts as Saban did at the end of the first half on Saturday. If it takes you more than the last three coaches, that's a good sign. Don't see it as some coincidence that an obviously infuriated Saban took his team into halftime, likely gave them a wholesale ass-chewing, then came out and held a potent Tennessee offense to no points in the second half. This man will not sit on his laurels; he wants to win every game because he has the fire of a champion.
3) Saban is starting to trust Applewhite's offensive playcalling.
Calling a draw on third and goal from the eight yard line is not a Pendry move. That was Major's call. And it worked to perfection. It's just a small example, but it shows that maybe the players arent' the only ones becoming more comfortable with the offensive system.
4) The Fourth Quarter Program really, really, works.
Think fast; which team this year has beaten Alabama in the fourth quarter? The only one that comes to mind is Houston, and Alabama still won that game. The results, however, seem to indicate the Houston game was an anomaly. So far this season, Alabama has scored 77 points in the fourth quarter through eight games. To give you something to compare it to, the 2006 Alabama squad put up 79 points THE ENTIRE SEASON in the fourth quarter. If you don't believe, especially on the offensive side, our mental and physical conditioning has improved dramatically, you aren't really paying attention.
5) This team CAN beat LSU
Preseason, this game was marked down as an almost universally sure defeat for Alabama. However, no one expected Nick Saban to work as quickly as he did. Alabama is perched, as we near the start of November, in one of the last places we expected them to be; tied for first in the SEC West. Only three more victories keep Nick Saban from achieving what was deemed impossible to do in his first season; take the Crimson Tide to Atlanta. The next obstacle in that path is that monstrosity of talent, depth, and athleticism that Saban himself built; the Bengal Tigers of LSU. The 28-14 tally of last year didn't indicate how much LSU really dominated that game. Nick Saban has made it abundantly clear this year his teams will not be dominated. Alabama's two losses have come by a combined 10 points, or less than the 15 point deficit Alabama had against Florida last year. It will not be easy. A perfect game will need to be played, and LSU will have to make some dumb decisions, but in this year of the upset, can anyone really count Alabama out? Only November 3rd can tell us for sure. One thing you can be sure of, however, is that Saint Nick will have the boys ready to play. So come on, Les Miles, bring it on. But I can tell you one thing; our defensive line won't let you go five-for-five on fourth down conversions.
Friday, October 19, 2007
S & E Breakdown: The Third Saturday in October
Loathing is the only word that comes to mind when I think about the feelings shared between the faithful of Alabama and Tennessee. These teams hate each other in an almost farcical fashion, which means the emotional aspect of this week's game is more crucial than any Alabama has played this year. However, the impartial journalist must still give proper credit to the numbers these teams have produced this season as well. So without further banter, here is my Statistical and Emotional breakdown of the fall classic known as the Third Saturday in October
Statistical:
Looking at the defensive strengths, or lack of said strengths, of these two teams, no one should be expecting the 6-3 or 16-13 scores we have seen the last two years. Tennessee checks into this game with the 11th ranked defense in the SEC, while Alabama is holding at the 9th ranked defense in conference. But to be fair to the Volunteers, their stats may be padded by the 59 they gave up to Florida in Gainesville and the 45 they gave up to Cal in Berkeley. Most likely you are looking at two teams with roughly the same defensive production; Bama is allowing around 25 per SEC game, and so is Tennessee. Add into the mix both teams ability to break off big plays and this game has every indication of being a barn-burner. Eric Ainge is going to attempt to nickel and dime his way down the field with curls and quick slants, and Alabama is going to stick to the offensive balance which has placed it around the middle of the SEC in offensive production. Each team is going to heavily depend on defensive line play, but for separate purposes; Alabama will hope to pressure Ainge into making bad throws, and Tennessee will attempt to shut down the trio of Grant, Coffee, and Upchurch to force John Parker Wilson into beating them. If neither team proves to be successful in this endeavor, look for the last team with the ball to win. If they do, special teams will once again play a crucial role in an Alabama victory. If Javier Arenas can maximize the opportunities Tennessee's outstanding punter Britt Colquitt can provide to him, a Tide victory seems much more likely. The fact that Alabama will need more big plays than Tennessee does not bode well from a talent standpoint.
Key matchup: UA secondary vs. Eric Ainge and UT receivers.
Sure tackling in this game is crucial. Ainge has the accuracy and arm strength to punish Alabama on short routes. Simeon Castille and Kareem Jackson must lock down the Tennessee wideouts on the curls, slants, and outs, and prevent them from slipping out of tackles. Marcus Carter and Rashad Johnson, on the other hand, must play solid deep coverage, and make Eric Ainge pay for trying to throw a deep route. If Rashad Johnson can add to his SEC-leading four interceptions on the season tomorrow, Alabama will stand a better than average chance of coming away with the victory.
Statistical Edge: Tennessee
Emotional:
It's time for Nick Saban to earn his four million per year. The Board of Trustees gave him the largest salary in the NCAA to win games like this. For twelve years Alabama has been bullied around and cast down by the likes of Philip Fulmer and the Orange Nation. A victory here and Saban will send a clear message to the rest of the SEC; 'Bama ain't dead yet. Look for Alabama, stirred by a hungry and maniacal crowd, to come out as pumped as anyone has seen since the Gators came to T-town in 2005. From a Tennessee standpoint, Phil Fulmer has to show that his Georgia victory was no fluke, and he is still the man in charge in Knoxville. UT will not come out flat, and if they do, they don't deserve to win anyways. This game is about hatred, and it will be very apparent about ten seconds into Tennessee's first drive.
Emotional Edge: Alabama
Final Thoughts and Prediction:
As a student, I have never been to a home game I more eagerly anticipated. The 11:30 kickoff, while a burden to some, is a boon to me. The students will be fresh and ready to scream their heads off, giving Alabama the 12th man it will need to pull off the victory. Look for the scoreboard to be lit up, and for some 'Bama magic, in a revived offense, to get the Tide rolling for the brunt of their second half schedule.
Alabama 38, Tennessee 35
Statistical:
Looking at the defensive strengths, or lack of said strengths, of these two teams, no one should be expecting the 6-3 or 16-13 scores we have seen the last two years. Tennessee checks into this game with the 11th ranked defense in the SEC, while Alabama is holding at the 9th ranked defense in conference. But to be fair to the Volunteers, their stats may be padded by the 59 they gave up to Florida in Gainesville and the 45 they gave up to Cal in Berkeley. Most likely you are looking at two teams with roughly the same defensive production; Bama is allowing around 25 per SEC game, and so is Tennessee. Add into the mix both teams ability to break off big plays and this game has every indication of being a barn-burner. Eric Ainge is going to attempt to nickel and dime his way down the field with curls and quick slants, and Alabama is going to stick to the offensive balance which has placed it around the middle of the SEC in offensive production. Each team is going to heavily depend on defensive line play, but for separate purposes; Alabama will hope to pressure Ainge into making bad throws, and Tennessee will attempt to shut down the trio of Grant, Coffee, and Upchurch to force John Parker Wilson into beating them. If neither team proves to be successful in this endeavor, look for the last team with the ball to win. If they do, special teams will once again play a crucial role in an Alabama victory. If Javier Arenas can maximize the opportunities Tennessee's outstanding punter Britt Colquitt can provide to him, a Tide victory seems much more likely. The fact that Alabama will need more big plays than Tennessee does not bode well from a talent standpoint.
Key matchup: UA secondary vs. Eric Ainge and UT receivers.
Sure tackling in this game is crucial. Ainge has the accuracy and arm strength to punish Alabama on short routes. Simeon Castille and Kareem Jackson must lock down the Tennessee wideouts on the curls, slants, and outs, and prevent them from slipping out of tackles. Marcus Carter and Rashad Johnson, on the other hand, must play solid deep coverage, and make Eric Ainge pay for trying to throw a deep route. If Rashad Johnson can add to his SEC-leading four interceptions on the season tomorrow, Alabama will stand a better than average chance of coming away with the victory.
Statistical Edge: Tennessee
Emotional:
It's time for Nick Saban to earn his four million per year. The Board of Trustees gave him the largest salary in the NCAA to win games like this. For twelve years Alabama has been bullied around and cast down by the likes of Philip Fulmer and the Orange Nation. A victory here and Saban will send a clear message to the rest of the SEC; 'Bama ain't dead yet. Look for Alabama, stirred by a hungry and maniacal crowd, to come out as pumped as anyone has seen since the Gators came to T-town in 2005. From a Tennessee standpoint, Phil Fulmer has to show that his Georgia victory was no fluke, and he is still the man in charge in Knoxville. UT will not come out flat, and if they do, they don't deserve to win anyways. This game is about hatred, and it will be very apparent about ten seconds into Tennessee's first drive.
Emotional Edge: Alabama
Final Thoughts and Prediction:
As a student, I have never been to a home game I more eagerly anticipated. The 11:30 kickoff, while a burden to some, is a boon to me. The students will be fresh and ready to scream their heads off, giving Alabama the 12th man it will need to pull off the victory. Look for the scoreboard to be lit up, and for some 'Bama magic, in a revived offense, to get the Tide rolling for the brunt of their second half schedule.
Alabama 38, Tennessee 35
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Two Wills, One Mind
It's only Wednesday, but even now, you can see the approaching storm.
The clouds are rolling, and slowly but surely, they are headed for Tuscaloosa. Every year, we see it coming, and every year, we despise it. We despise their creamsicle orange hue, we can't stand that annoying ditty they relentlessly sing, we can't stand the man who marshals the forces of a state that has always hated us, and who we have always reviled in turn. It's the third Saturday in October, and Tennessee is coming to town.
For almost a century, the Tide and the Vols have locked themselves in gridiron battle. The wars they have waged have every bit of the passion seen in the siege of Troy, upon the fields of Waterloo, and on the rolling seas of the Pacific. Blood and death is replaced by heartache and triumph. Names like Neyland and Bryant have been immortalized by the plunder of this victory. There is no contest, save that upon the Plains of Auburn, which carries the weight of this annual matchup. And this 2007 campaign could be the greatest of them all.
For fifteen years, the Alabama faithful have been plagued by the dominance of the man they crucify Fat Phil. He has defeated the Tide both on the field and off it, leading the Volunteers to victory, while condemning the 'Bama nation to five years of darkness and doubt. It is only now, in desperation and in prayer, that Alabama has searched, and found, the man they hope to lead us back to the days of Glory. For Nick Saban, this is his moment. This is his time to stand up, to gain favor in the eyes of those who believe in his process. This is where he earns that power which has been given to him.
This year's rendition of this old tune we know so well carries the weight of two programs on its shoulders. For Alabama, here is presented a chance to regain their pride, to know that their leader will not wither in the sight of our enemy. For Tennessee, Fulmer must go to high noon, in the land which hates him, to face the new gun in town. All he has built, all he has worked for, all that he knows and loves about the state of his manhood, is on the line. The pieces are set, and the match is ready to begin.
It's going to be one wild storm.
The clouds are rolling, and slowly but surely, they are headed for Tuscaloosa. Every year, we see it coming, and every year, we despise it. We despise their creamsicle orange hue, we can't stand that annoying ditty they relentlessly sing, we can't stand the man who marshals the forces of a state that has always hated us, and who we have always reviled in turn. It's the third Saturday in October, and Tennessee is coming to town.
For almost a century, the Tide and the Vols have locked themselves in gridiron battle. The wars they have waged have every bit of the passion seen in the siege of Troy, upon the fields of Waterloo, and on the rolling seas of the Pacific. Blood and death is replaced by heartache and triumph. Names like Neyland and Bryant have been immortalized by the plunder of this victory. There is no contest, save that upon the Plains of Auburn, which carries the weight of this annual matchup. And this 2007 campaign could be the greatest of them all.
For fifteen years, the Alabama faithful have been plagued by the dominance of the man they crucify Fat Phil. He has defeated the Tide both on the field and off it, leading the Volunteers to victory, while condemning the 'Bama nation to five years of darkness and doubt. It is only now, in desperation and in prayer, that Alabama has searched, and found, the man they hope to lead us back to the days of Glory. For Nick Saban, this is his moment. This is his time to stand up, to gain favor in the eyes of those who believe in his process. This is where he earns that power which has been given to him.
This year's rendition of this old tune we know so well carries the weight of two programs on its shoulders. For Alabama, here is presented a chance to regain their pride, to know that their leader will not wither in the sight of our enemy. For Tennessee, Fulmer must go to high noon, in the land which hates him, to face the new gun in town. All he has built, all he has worked for, all that he knows and loves about the state of his manhood, is on the line. The pieces are set, and the match is ready to begin.
It's going to be one wild storm.
Friday, October 12, 2007
UA-UM S & E breakdown
Hello faithful(if any) readers. I'm sorry it's been so long since my last post, but I've been very busy with both school and football related matters. Since my last article, we've had a 1-2 skid to what seemed, in all indications, to be a season Alabama could surprise all expectations. Of course, this being the year of college football it is, a proverbial season of upsets and surprise teams, Alabama's surprise didn't quite last after the Bulldogs came to town and the Seminoles won in Jacksonville. There is still, however, a lot to play for, and 9-3 is still a distinct, if remote, possibility for Nick Saban's rookie Alabama squad. Therefore, without further rabbling, I will present the Statistical and Emotional breakdown of the Alabama-Ole Miss game.
Statisical
Alabama's offense, in many facets, has been one of night and day. A unit that showed flashes of brilliance against Arkansas and Houston has also mailed in some terrible games, namely Florida State and, well, Houston. In most cases, the first team that figures out that they can stack the box and force John Parker Wilson to throw, seems to have the magic touch to stop 'Bama's production. Quite an amazing coincidence. Having reached their midway point, there is enough game film for even a slightly sub-par coach and a bottom-ranked defense to understand that stopping Alabama's running game will give your offense a solid chance to win. Unfortunately for Alabama, Ole Miss presents that problem. Ed Orgeron, a former defensive line coach at Southern Cal, is especially sure to understand that facet. Once again, it appears that John Parker Wilson will have to show us how good he really is. On the good side, this will be about the easiest chance he will get. Ole Miss ranks dead last in the SEC in both rush and pass defense. What's worse for rebel fans is that the numbers don't even indicate how bad the defense is. The Ole Miss secondary gave up almost 350 yards passing to a 2-3 Memphis team. Georgia rolled up over 300 yards rushing to go along with four rushing touchdowns in the second half alone. For Alabama to get back in a winning groove, it is simply imperative for John Parker to step up and be the field general he showed Alabama fans in his record-breaking season of 2006. He's not the most talented, and he doesn't have to be. He just have to give a very talented, but occasionally unfocused, receiving corps a chance. That means he doesn't need to miss those five yard out routes, or get happy feet and roll out of a developed pocket. He just needs to manage and keep the ball safe, especially in the second half. A big part of that will depend on how on the duo of Glen Coffee and Terry Grant are in Oxford tomorrow.
On the offensive side for Ole Miss, their biggest and most pleasant surprise has been the incredible play of Seth Adams. The walk-on quarterback has far exceeded what any fan could have imagined for him when Brent Schauffer was assumed the starter preseason. He's a big part of what has kept the rebel passing offense in the top half of the SEC rankings. On the other hand, their rushing attack, like most of the rest of the Ole Miss program, ranks dead last in the SEC. Look for Seth Adams to throw the ball early and often. If Alabama pulls a Florida and doesn't come ready for the passing attack, their chances of winning are much worse than Florida's were, as Alabama doesn't have the same caliber of play-makers. Statistically, for Alabama to win, they must control the tempo of the game and stop the big passing plays, something the defense has managed to do very well, with some painful exceptions. Against a team like Ole Miss, the exceptions should be few and far between.
Statistical Edge: Alabama
Emotional:
Emotionally, this game is solely about John Parker Wilson. This is easily the worst defense he will face for the rest of the season. It is crucial not only to this game, but for the rest of the season, that he perform admirably. That's a lot of pressure, but if anyone can handle it, it's Wilson. He played for Rush Propst, the king of profanity, at Hoover, easily the best program in the state of Alabama, and he's been the starting quarterback for Alabama, also known as the blazing inferno, for over a year. John Parker needs to step up, and play like he knows he can. If he comes to play tomorrow, Ole Miss is in trouble.
From an Ole Miss standpoint, this is their swing game. They need the momentum of beating Alabama at home to catapult their goal of a bowl game. They will bring their best shot, and Alabama has to come into town to play.
Emotional Edge: Alabama
Final Thoughts and Prediction: Alabama and Ole Miss both need this game, for varying reasons. Alabama, to show that there is still a reason to be excited about this season and not the next one, and Ole Miss to determine whether it is time to start looking in a new direction for their program. Look for Alabama to get back in their offensive groove against a porous defense, and look for both Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell to add to their interception totals for the season.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Ole Miss 21
Statisical
Alabama's offense, in many facets, has been one of night and day. A unit that showed flashes of brilliance against Arkansas and Houston has also mailed in some terrible games, namely Florida State and, well, Houston. In most cases, the first team that figures out that they can stack the box and force John Parker Wilson to throw, seems to have the magic touch to stop 'Bama's production. Quite an amazing coincidence. Having reached their midway point, there is enough game film for even a slightly sub-par coach and a bottom-ranked defense to understand that stopping Alabama's running game will give your offense a solid chance to win. Unfortunately for Alabama, Ole Miss presents that problem. Ed Orgeron, a former defensive line coach at Southern Cal, is especially sure to understand that facet. Once again, it appears that John Parker Wilson will have to show us how good he really is. On the good side, this will be about the easiest chance he will get. Ole Miss ranks dead last in the SEC in both rush and pass defense. What's worse for rebel fans is that the numbers don't even indicate how bad the defense is. The Ole Miss secondary gave up almost 350 yards passing to a 2-3 Memphis team. Georgia rolled up over 300 yards rushing to go along with four rushing touchdowns in the second half alone. For Alabama to get back in a winning groove, it is simply imperative for John Parker to step up and be the field general he showed Alabama fans in his record-breaking season of 2006. He's not the most talented, and he doesn't have to be. He just have to give a very talented, but occasionally unfocused, receiving corps a chance. That means he doesn't need to miss those five yard out routes, or get happy feet and roll out of a developed pocket. He just needs to manage and keep the ball safe, especially in the second half. A big part of that will depend on how on the duo of Glen Coffee and Terry Grant are in Oxford tomorrow.
On the offensive side for Ole Miss, their biggest and most pleasant surprise has been the incredible play of Seth Adams. The walk-on quarterback has far exceeded what any fan could have imagined for him when Brent Schauffer was assumed the starter preseason. He's a big part of what has kept the rebel passing offense in the top half of the SEC rankings. On the other hand, their rushing attack, like most of the rest of the Ole Miss program, ranks dead last in the SEC. Look for Seth Adams to throw the ball early and often. If Alabama pulls a Florida and doesn't come ready for the passing attack, their chances of winning are much worse than Florida's were, as Alabama doesn't have the same caliber of play-makers. Statistically, for Alabama to win, they must control the tempo of the game and stop the big passing plays, something the defense has managed to do very well, with some painful exceptions. Against a team like Ole Miss, the exceptions should be few and far between.
Statistical Edge: Alabama
Emotional:
Emotionally, this game is solely about John Parker Wilson. This is easily the worst defense he will face for the rest of the season. It is crucial not only to this game, but for the rest of the season, that he perform admirably. That's a lot of pressure, but if anyone can handle it, it's Wilson. He played for Rush Propst, the king of profanity, at Hoover, easily the best program in the state of Alabama, and he's been the starting quarterback for Alabama, also known as the blazing inferno, for over a year. John Parker needs to step up, and play like he knows he can. If he comes to play tomorrow, Ole Miss is in trouble.
From an Ole Miss standpoint, this is their swing game. They need the momentum of beating Alabama at home to catapult their goal of a bowl game. They will bring their best shot, and Alabama has to come into town to play.
Emotional Edge: Alabama
Final Thoughts and Prediction: Alabama and Ole Miss both need this game, for varying reasons. Alabama, to show that there is still a reason to be excited about this season and not the next one, and Ole Miss to determine whether it is time to start looking in a new direction for their program. Look for Alabama to get back in their offensive groove against a porous defense, and look for both Simeon Castille and Lionel Mitchell to add to their interception totals for the season.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Ole Miss 21
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
S & E Breakdown: Bama vs. UGA
This is a segment I want to start doing every week before the game. It's called the S & E, or Statistical and Emotional, Breakdown. Too many analysts and sportswriters, in my opinion, base their game predictions on one of these two criteria. My goal is to present both sides equally, giving the edge to whichever side I feel has it for that week. So without further eloquence, I present my Bama vs. UGA S & E Breakdown:
Statistically:
Remember how close we thought the Arkansas game was going to be? This one should be even closer. The three opponents each team has faced, Western Carolina, Vandy, and Arkansas for Bama, and Western Carolina, OK State, and South Carolina for Georgia, are eerily similar.
Western Carolina: Same team. Georgia gave up a few more points, but still thoroughly dominated after the first half. Can you say depth?
Vandy/OK State: I would put these two at about the same level. Both have excellent playmaking receivers (Adarius Bowman for OSU, Earl Bennett for Vandy), both have spoiler written all over them(both Georgia and Alabama were picked as upset alerts when they played these teams), and both were dominated by a better, more talented team.
South Carolina/Arkansas: Both are very talented teams, albeit in different manners. Arkansas is much more brutally physical, while South Carolina is very efficient and all about finesse. If you think for a second that Georgia was massively upset by South Carolina, you would be, well, wrong. Their offense is struggling without Sidney Rice, but their defense is legit against the pass, ranking second in the SEC in pass defense, and is very stingy with points, averaging 9.7 points allowed, also good for second in the SEC.
Georgia's offense is not as balanced as some would like to think. I'll give you two numbers to prove it; 223(passing yards per game), 136.7(rushing yards per game). Knowshon Moreno, the talented freshman, is their leading rusher, but has only one touchdown to his credit. Four field goals didn't win against South Carolina, and it certainly won't do it against Alabama, who has a top 30 offense at the moment. I'll give you more numbers: 128(rushing yards against South Carolina) and 192(per game rushing defense for South Carolina). South Carolina is DEAD LAST in the SEC in rushing defense. Just to clarify, let me remind you who South Carolina's other opponents were.
Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina State.
If you are a Georgia fan, you should be worried. But don't worry about the running backs. Worry about that young, young, offensive line. Alabama fans more than anyone else should understand how critically important to the success of the running game an experienced offensive line is. (See 2005 and 2006)
Alabama, on the other hand, has some of it's own rushing issues, specifically in the defense department. That is, if you consider giving up over 300 yards on the ground bad. Which is what they did against Arkansas. However, most came in the second half, against the best running back in the nation, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones, who's no slouch either. All that shows(turn away, Shula fans), is a lack of depth on the defensive front seven most likely caused by poor D-line and LB recruiting in the last three years. The fact that two true freshman are playing reserve nose tackle should solidify the point. No matter. This is not the most interesting battle that will take place Saturday. The really interesting one, the battle that will decide whether it is an Alabama blowout or a Georgia squeaker, is...
Terry Grant vs. the Georgia run defense
Georgia's run defense is good. How good? 91 yards per game good. To give you an idea, South Carolina and Oklahoma State are averaging over 180 yards apiece. Terry Grant has yet to run for less than 96 yards this season. If he is held in check, John Parker Wilson has to throw a lot more. Bama's passing game is efficient, but it cannot be expected to put up the same kind of production it did against Arkansas. Though they haven't faced a passing attack as potent as Bama's, the numbers(Georgia is averaging almost 100 yards less through the air than Arkansas) indicate a tougher secondary. If Terry Grant doesn't get going, it leaves too many third and longs, opens Georgia up to the blitz, and forces John Parker to make more decisions than he is ready to. With DJ Hall still being a little sore, it's better for Alabama for Terry Grant to tote the rock a lot. If his carries reach over 20, Alabama runs away with it.
Statistical Edge: Bama
Emotionally:
Georgia wants to win. Bad. Really bad. Their lofty expectations are shot if they lose this game. Though Georgia wasn't upset too badly by South Carolina, they had a let down. They won't this week. They are hungry, they are pumped, and Mark Richt, despite his nice guy persona, is no Mike Shula. Mark Richt will smile and shake your hand and be a real class act, and especially so if he beats the snot out of you (Les Miles, care to comment about that whupping in the '05 SEC Championship?). He will have them ready. Will Nick Saban?
This, to my mind, is Saban's biggest test yet as Bama's head coach. Coming off an incredibly emotional, but physically draining, game against Arkansas, can he rally the troops enough to give the proper welcome to the Bulldogs of Georgia? I think he can, and I think he will. This guy means business, and he means it right now. But...
Emotional Edge: UGA
Final Thoughts and Prediction: This will be a fight. A glorious one. There will be more of a defensive focus, as opposed to an all-out barn burner. But in the end, those who haven't already seen the rising tide will feel it crashing against their face. Terry Grant runs for 130, scores two TD's, and Bama wins 24-21.
Statistically:
Remember how close we thought the Arkansas game was going to be? This one should be even closer. The three opponents each team has faced, Western Carolina, Vandy, and Arkansas for Bama, and Western Carolina, OK State, and South Carolina for Georgia, are eerily similar.
Western Carolina: Same team. Georgia gave up a few more points, but still thoroughly dominated after the first half. Can you say depth?
Vandy/OK State: I would put these two at about the same level. Both have excellent playmaking receivers (Adarius Bowman for OSU, Earl Bennett for Vandy), both have spoiler written all over them(both Georgia and Alabama were picked as upset alerts when they played these teams), and both were dominated by a better, more talented team.
South Carolina/Arkansas: Both are very talented teams, albeit in different manners. Arkansas is much more brutally physical, while South Carolina is very efficient and all about finesse. If you think for a second that Georgia was massively upset by South Carolina, you would be, well, wrong. Their offense is struggling without Sidney Rice, but their defense is legit against the pass, ranking second in the SEC in pass defense, and is very stingy with points, averaging 9.7 points allowed, also good for second in the SEC.
Georgia's offense is not as balanced as some would like to think. I'll give you two numbers to prove it; 223(passing yards per game), 136.7(rushing yards per game). Knowshon Moreno, the talented freshman, is their leading rusher, but has only one touchdown to his credit. Four field goals didn't win against South Carolina, and it certainly won't do it against Alabama, who has a top 30 offense at the moment. I'll give you more numbers: 128(rushing yards against South Carolina) and 192(per game rushing defense for South Carolina). South Carolina is DEAD LAST in the SEC in rushing defense. Just to clarify, let me remind you who South Carolina's other opponents were.
Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina State.
If you are a Georgia fan, you should be worried. But don't worry about the running backs. Worry about that young, young, offensive line. Alabama fans more than anyone else should understand how critically important to the success of the running game an experienced offensive line is. (See 2005 and 2006)
Alabama, on the other hand, has some of it's own rushing issues, specifically in the defense department. That is, if you consider giving up over 300 yards on the ground bad. Which is what they did against Arkansas. However, most came in the second half, against the best running back in the nation, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones, who's no slouch either. All that shows(turn away, Shula fans), is a lack of depth on the defensive front seven most likely caused by poor D-line and LB recruiting in the last three years. The fact that two true freshman are playing reserve nose tackle should solidify the point. No matter. This is not the most interesting battle that will take place Saturday. The really interesting one, the battle that will decide whether it is an Alabama blowout or a Georgia squeaker, is...
Terry Grant vs. the Georgia run defense
Georgia's run defense is good. How good? 91 yards per game good. To give you an idea, South Carolina and Oklahoma State are averaging over 180 yards apiece. Terry Grant has yet to run for less than 96 yards this season. If he is held in check, John Parker Wilson has to throw a lot more. Bama's passing game is efficient, but it cannot be expected to put up the same kind of production it did against Arkansas. Though they haven't faced a passing attack as potent as Bama's, the numbers(Georgia is averaging almost 100 yards less through the air than Arkansas) indicate a tougher secondary. If Terry Grant doesn't get going, it leaves too many third and longs, opens Georgia up to the blitz, and forces John Parker to make more decisions than he is ready to. With DJ Hall still being a little sore, it's better for Alabama for Terry Grant to tote the rock a lot. If his carries reach over 20, Alabama runs away with it.
Statistical Edge: Bama
Emotionally:
Georgia wants to win. Bad. Really bad. Their lofty expectations are shot if they lose this game. Though Georgia wasn't upset too badly by South Carolina, they had a let down. They won't this week. They are hungry, they are pumped, and Mark Richt, despite his nice guy persona, is no Mike Shula. Mark Richt will smile and shake your hand and be a real class act, and especially so if he beats the snot out of you (Les Miles, care to comment about that whupping in the '05 SEC Championship?). He will have them ready. Will Nick Saban?
This, to my mind, is Saban's biggest test yet as Bama's head coach. Coming off an incredibly emotional, but physically draining, game against Arkansas, can he rally the troops enough to give the proper welcome to the Bulldogs of Georgia? I think he can, and I think he will. This guy means business, and he means it right now. But...
Emotional Edge: UGA
Final Thoughts and Prediction: This will be a fight. A glorious one. There will be more of a defensive focus, as opposed to an all-out barn burner. But in the end, those who haven't already seen the rising tide will feel it crashing against their face. Terry Grant runs for 130, scores two TD's, and Bama wins 24-21.
A Tale of Three(?) Coaches
First of all, I would like to say how extremely stoked I am about the positive feedback I received after my first post. I certainly don't want to let any of my few readers down, so I decided to get back to work this Wednesday morning. Today's post answers a surprisingly common question that is asked by college football fans; why is a great coach great?
Well, to put it simply, a great college football coach has a basic understanding, and sometimes mastery, of the three keys essential to college football success. Some, like our favorite Alabama legend Paul "Bear" Bryant, possessed a mastery of all three, which was the driving factor behind his almost mythical success not just at Alabama, but at Maryland, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
1. The Recruiter
These are the Ron Zook types. The guys who pick out five-star high school prospects like Phil Fulmer picks out boxes of donuts at Krispy Kreme. A great recruiter understands that bigger, faster, and stronger recruits lead to bigger, faster, and stronger players, but occasionally don't quite understand how to transfer that onto the playing field. Unfortunately, poor Ron Zook is my guinea pig for this example. Hands down, Ron Zook is the best recruiting coach I have ever seen. The fact that he could get one five-star to come to Illinois is amazing, but upon his second in the 2007 class alone, I have run out of superlatives. Zook could probably convince me to wipe his ass for him. Unfortunately, when the time came to perform the (most likely) dirty deed, he also would not have the faintest idea how to tell me what to do. Though Zook's players won the national championship last year under Urban Meyer, with Zook at the helm they would never even have sniffed a BCS bowl. Great talent, tragically, does not mean great teams. Which leads me to...
2. The Program Builder
Mack Brown in a nut shell. These are the guys who can create a college football program enviable to a pro team. Facility upgrades, fundraising, generating fan support, these guys do it all. More importantly, they understand how to take the talent they have and make lemonade from lemons. They squeeze out the potential and turn them into first round draft picks (See Miami under Butch Davis as well). However, when the crunch time comes, it always seems like they "can't win the big one." Mack Brown is a perfect example. Since 2002, Mack Brown has finished in the top ten four times. An outstanding program, having outstanding results. In the polls. Let's look at championships. The number I'm thinking of is...one. That's how many Mack Brown got over that span. National AND Big XII. And even then, most would say that was because Vince Young piggy-backed that team all the way to the Rose Bowl. Guess who went to the Big XII championship four out of those five years, winning three times? Bob Stoops. You know, the Oklahoma guy. Why? Because not winning the big game means you still have work on the third aspect of coaching college football. Which is...
3. The Gameday Coach
Rich Rodriguez. Period. Quick show of hands. How many of you can throw the ball further than Pat White? All hands should be raised. Another quick show of hands. Who wants to go play football in Morgantown, West Virginia? No hands should be raised. Rich-Rod, God bless him, has made the veritable chicken salad out of chicken shit. WVU is far from a recruiting hotbed. Their last four classes, according to Rivals.com, have finished 23rd(2007), 52nd(2006), 31st(2005), and 47th(2004). Their facilities are the reason Rich Rodriguez almost left his alma mater to go to Alabama. Yet they have two Heisman trophy candidates, a top five ranking, and two consecutive bowl wins, one of them a BCS bowl. Against Georgia. From the SEC. How? Because Rich Rod is a damn good coach. He can exploit a weakness, any weakness, in the defense, and just straight-up outscore your ass, ala Steve Spurrier at Florida during the 1990s. Can he win a national championship? Maybe. Is it likely? Probably not. Because even a great gameday coach can't win every game without what we like to call quality depth, or a defense. Which are hallmarks of the first two coaches. Now, I present the final equation:
Recruiter + Program Builder + Gameday Coach= Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel... the elite coaches in the NCAA. True, some are better at aspects than others. Steve Spurrier is stronger at gameday coaching, while Meyer is a better program builder. Saban and Carroll are better recruiters. Stoops, I believe, may be the most balanced of all of them. But they all have deep understanding and competency in each aspect. And that, my loyal readers, is what makes a great college football coach.
Well, to put it simply, a great college football coach has a basic understanding, and sometimes mastery, of the three keys essential to college football success. Some, like our favorite Alabama legend Paul "Bear" Bryant, possessed a mastery of all three, which was the driving factor behind his almost mythical success not just at Alabama, but at Maryland, Kentucky, and Texas A&M.
1. The Recruiter
These are the Ron Zook types. The guys who pick out five-star high school prospects like Phil Fulmer picks out boxes of donuts at Krispy Kreme. A great recruiter understands that bigger, faster, and stronger recruits lead to bigger, faster, and stronger players, but occasionally don't quite understand how to transfer that onto the playing field. Unfortunately, poor Ron Zook is my guinea pig for this example. Hands down, Ron Zook is the best recruiting coach I have ever seen. The fact that he could get one five-star to come to Illinois is amazing, but upon his second in the 2007 class alone, I have run out of superlatives. Zook could probably convince me to wipe his ass for him. Unfortunately, when the time came to perform the (most likely) dirty deed, he also would not have the faintest idea how to tell me what to do. Though Zook's players won the national championship last year under Urban Meyer, with Zook at the helm they would never even have sniffed a BCS bowl. Great talent, tragically, does not mean great teams. Which leads me to...
2. The Program Builder
Mack Brown in a nut shell. These are the guys who can create a college football program enviable to a pro team. Facility upgrades, fundraising, generating fan support, these guys do it all. More importantly, they understand how to take the talent they have and make lemonade from lemons. They squeeze out the potential and turn them into first round draft picks (See Miami under Butch Davis as well). However, when the crunch time comes, it always seems like they "can't win the big one." Mack Brown is a perfect example. Since 2002, Mack Brown has finished in the top ten four times. An outstanding program, having outstanding results. In the polls. Let's look at championships. The number I'm thinking of is...one. That's how many Mack Brown got over that span. National AND Big XII. And even then, most would say that was because Vince Young piggy-backed that team all the way to the Rose Bowl. Guess who went to the Big XII championship four out of those five years, winning three times? Bob Stoops. You know, the Oklahoma guy. Why? Because not winning the big game means you still have work on the third aspect of coaching college football. Which is...
3. The Gameday Coach
Rich Rodriguez. Period. Quick show of hands. How many of you can throw the ball further than Pat White? All hands should be raised. Another quick show of hands. Who wants to go play football in Morgantown, West Virginia? No hands should be raised. Rich-Rod, God bless him, has made the veritable chicken salad out of chicken shit. WVU is far from a recruiting hotbed. Their last four classes, according to Rivals.com, have finished 23rd(2007), 52nd(2006), 31st(2005), and 47th(2004). Their facilities are the reason Rich Rodriguez almost left his alma mater to go to Alabama. Yet they have two Heisman trophy candidates, a top five ranking, and two consecutive bowl wins, one of them a BCS bowl. Against Georgia. From the SEC. How? Because Rich Rod is a damn good coach. He can exploit a weakness, any weakness, in the defense, and just straight-up outscore your ass, ala Steve Spurrier at Florida during the 1990s. Can he win a national championship? Maybe. Is it likely? Probably not. Because even a great gameday coach can't win every game without what we like to call quality depth, or a defense. Which are hallmarks of the first two coaches. Now, I present the final equation:
Recruiter + Program Builder + Gameday Coach= Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel... the elite coaches in the NCAA. True, some are better at aspects than others. Steve Spurrier is stronger at gameday coaching, while Meyer is a better program builder. Saban and Carroll are better recruiters. Stoops, I believe, may be the most balanced of all of them. But they all have deep understanding and competency in each aspect. And that, my loyal readers, is what makes a great college football coach.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Saban Makes Us Believe
For about ten minutes on Saturday, September 15th, 2007, on a warm evening in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, it was 2003.
A twenty-one point lead...gone.
An inept offense...again.
A defense that made most stops...but not all of them.
We could only watch in the stands as Arkansas marched up and down the field like it was their own. Bryant-Denny stadium, rambunctious, proud, and loud as hell, had turned silent as the tomb where the legend himself resides.
"Who let Shula back?" I heard one fan say. I almost believed him.
Until I looked to the sidelines.
He isn't tall like Shula. He isn't gruff like the Bear. But Nick Saban has a fire. And I saw it in his eyes, that night, like I had seen it in every press conference, every TV appearance, every single frame in which the most powerful and questioned man in the entire state of Alabama had ever appeared; the unquenchable fire of a true champion.
Nick Saban and I have never met, but that night we did. For the first time, in that place, on that field, I felt the fire that now blazes through the entire football program here at my University of Alabama. I felt hope, and I knew that 2003 was just that; 2003. A past failure. A past regime. A past mistake. This was a new day, and with it was sprung a new hope.
First came a field goal.
Then came a stop.
Then came a touchdown.
I watched it happen, but it still boggles my mind. It was almost scripted in its perfection. This wasn't the Alabama I'm used to. This wasn't the Alabama that was always oh so close, yet oh so far. This was Alabama as the old geezers in Tide Pride knew it; the Alabama that never gets counted out. That never surrenders. That never dies. This was Alabama, as the Bear coached it.
All because of Mal Moore, maligned for the hire of the likes of DuBose, Franchione, Price, and Shula, all eager to take the challenge, but all, in their own way, failing.
Not this man. Not the Sabanator.
They ask me why he is different. He's coached three games for Alabama. How can I know anything?
I don't. But I believe.
I believe, simply because Saban leaves me no other choice.
"Be a Champion," he told us that January day he was introduced as Alabama's 27th Head Coach. The day he took the troubles, the trials, the tribulations of an entire state, placed it squarely on his shoulders, and said to those of us who starved for victory, for championships, for the pride we once held in ourselves, "Follow me, and we will reach the promised land."
Over-dramatic, perhaps. Perhaps not.
It's no secret that we Alabama fans love our football. We name our children after coaches. We schedule weddings around games. We wear our school colors like gang signs, base opinions of others on their allegiance, and don't give a damn if we do.
But Saban has done something I have never seen; he has made us love it for the future, and not for it's illustrious past.
Saban has made us believe again. And that is something worth more than a paltry $32 million.
A twenty-one point lead...gone.
An inept offense...again.
A defense that made most stops...but not all of them.
We could only watch in the stands as Arkansas marched up and down the field like it was their own. Bryant-Denny stadium, rambunctious, proud, and loud as hell, had turned silent as the tomb where the legend himself resides.
"Who let Shula back?" I heard one fan say. I almost believed him.
Until I looked to the sidelines.
He isn't tall like Shula. He isn't gruff like the Bear. But Nick Saban has a fire. And I saw it in his eyes, that night, like I had seen it in every press conference, every TV appearance, every single frame in which the most powerful and questioned man in the entire state of Alabama had ever appeared; the unquenchable fire of a true champion.
Nick Saban and I have never met, but that night we did. For the first time, in that place, on that field, I felt the fire that now blazes through the entire football program here at my University of Alabama. I felt hope, and I knew that 2003 was just that; 2003. A past failure. A past regime. A past mistake. This was a new day, and with it was sprung a new hope.
First came a field goal.
Then came a stop.
Then came a touchdown.
I watched it happen, but it still boggles my mind. It was almost scripted in its perfection. This wasn't the Alabama I'm used to. This wasn't the Alabama that was always oh so close, yet oh so far. This was Alabama as the old geezers in Tide Pride knew it; the Alabama that never gets counted out. That never surrenders. That never dies. This was Alabama, as the Bear coached it.
All because of Mal Moore, maligned for the hire of the likes of DuBose, Franchione, Price, and Shula, all eager to take the challenge, but all, in their own way, failing.
Not this man. Not the Sabanator.
They ask me why he is different. He's coached three games for Alabama. How can I know anything?
I don't. But I believe.
I believe, simply because Saban leaves me no other choice.
"Be a Champion," he told us that January day he was introduced as Alabama's 27th Head Coach. The day he took the troubles, the trials, the tribulations of an entire state, placed it squarely on his shoulders, and said to those of us who starved for victory, for championships, for the pride we once held in ourselves, "Follow me, and we will reach the promised land."
Over-dramatic, perhaps. Perhaps not.
It's no secret that we Alabama fans love our football. We name our children after coaches. We schedule weddings around games. We wear our school colors like gang signs, base opinions of others on their allegiance, and don't give a damn if we do.
But Saban has done something I have never seen; he has made us love it for the future, and not for it's illustrious past.
Saban has made us believe again. And that is something worth more than a paltry $32 million.
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