S & E Breakdown: Bama vs. UGA

This is a segment I want to start doing every week before the game. It's called the S & E, or Statistical and Emotional, Breakdown. Too many analysts and sportswriters, in my opinion, base their game predictions on one of these two criteria. My goal is to present both sides equally, giving the edge to whichever side I feel has it for that week. So without further eloquence, I present my Bama vs. UGA S & E Breakdown:
Statistically:
Remember how close we thought the Arkansas game was going to be? This one should be even closer. The three opponents each team has faced, Western Carolina, Vandy, and Arkansas for Bama, and Western Carolina, OK State, and South Carolina for Georgia, are eerily similar.
Western Carolina: Same team. Georgia gave up a few more points, but still thoroughly dominated after the first half. Can you say depth?
Vandy/OK State: I would put these two at about the same level. Both have excellent playmaking receivers (Adarius Bowman for OSU, Earl Bennett for Vandy), both have spoiler written all over them(both Georgia and Alabama were picked as upset alerts when they played these teams), and both were dominated by a better, more talented team.
South Carolina/Arkansas: Both are very talented teams, albeit in different manners. Arkansas is much more brutally physical, while South Carolina is very efficient and all about finesse. If you think for a second that Georgia was massively upset by South Carolina, you would be, well, wrong. Their offense is struggling without Sidney Rice, but their defense is legit against the pass, ranking second in the SEC in pass defense, and is very stingy with points, averaging 9.7 points allowed, also good for second in the SEC.
Georgia's offense is not as balanced as some would like to think. I'll give you two numbers to prove it; 223(passing yards per game), 136.7(rushing yards per game). Knowshon Moreno, the talented freshman, is their leading rusher, but has only one touchdown to his credit. Four field goals didn't win against South Carolina, and it certainly won't do it against Alabama, who has a top 30 offense at the moment. I'll give you more numbers: 128(rushing yards against South Carolina) and 192(per game rushing defense for South Carolina). South Carolina is DEAD LAST in the SEC in rushing defense. Just to clarify, let me remind you who South Carolina's other opponents were.
Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina State.
If you are a Georgia fan, you should be worried. But don't worry about the running backs. Worry about that young, young, offensive line. Alabama fans more than anyone else should understand how critically important to the success of the running game an experienced offensive line is. (See 2005 and 2006)
Alabama, on the other hand, has some of it's own rushing issues, specifically in the defense department. That is, if you consider giving up over 300 yards on the ground bad. Which is what they did against Arkansas. However, most came in the second half, against the best running back in the nation, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones, who's no slouch either. All that shows(turn away, Shula fans), is a lack of depth on the defensive front seven most likely caused by poor D-line and LB recruiting in the last three years. The fact that two true freshman are playing reserve nose tackle should solidify the point. No matter. This is not the most interesting battle that will take place Saturday. The really interesting one, the battle that will decide whether it is an Alabama blowout or a Georgia squeaker, is...
Terry Grant vs. the Georgia run defense
Georgia's run defense is good. How good? 91 yards per game good. To give you an idea, South Carolina and Oklahoma State are averaging over 180 yards apiece. Terry Grant has yet to run for less than 96 yards this season. If he is held in check, John Parker Wilson has to throw a lot more. Bama's passing game is efficient, but it cannot be expected to put up the same kind of production it did against Arkansas. Though they haven't faced a passing attack as potent as Bama's, the numbers(Georgia is averaging almost 100 yards less through the air than Arkansas) indicate a tougher secondary. If Terry Grant doesn't get going, it leaves too many third and longs, opens Georgia up to the blitz, and forces John Parker to make more decisions than he is ready to. With DJ Hall still being a little sore, it's better for Alabama for Terry Grant to tote the rock a lot. If his carries reach over 20, Alabama runs away with it.
Statistical Edge: Bama
Emotionally:
Georgia wants to win. Bad. Really bad. Their lofty expectations are shot if they lose this game. Though Georgia wasn't upset too badly by South Carolina, they had a let down. They won't this week. They are hungry, they are pumped, and Mark Richt, despite his nice guy persona, is no Mike Shula. Mark Richt will smile and shake your hand and be a real class act, and especially so if he beats the snot out of you (Les Miles, care to comment about that whupping in the '05 SEC Championship?). He will have them ready. Will Nick Saban?
This, to my mind, is Saban's biggest test yet as Bama's head coach. Coming off an incredibly emotional, but physically draining, game against Arkansas, can he rally the troops enough to give the proper welcome to the Bulldogs of Georgia? I think he can, and I think he will. This guy means business, and he means it right now. But...
Emotional Edge: UGA
Final Thoughts and Prediction: This will be a fight. A glorious one. There will be more of a defensive focus, as opposed to an all-out barn burner. But in the end, those who haven't already seen the rising tide will feel it crashing against their face. Terry Grant runs for 130, scores two TD's, and Bama wins 24-21.